ゴールド投資が弱まる by Zeal 後半

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gold started falling on that deluge of spec gold-futures selling,
investors got spooked.  They assumed gold’s weaker price action must
reflect bearish fundamentals, which usually isn’t the case.  It just
showed speculators fleeing gold futures on a sharply-rallying US
dollar leading into the summer doldrums.  And the resurgent stock
euphoria as US stock markets clawed back toward highs further
tainted gold psychology.

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投機筋のゴールド先物売り殺到でゴールドは下落し始め、投資家は驚いた。彼らはゴールドの弱さはファンダメンタルズの弱さを反映しているに違いないと思い込んだ、たいていこれは誤解だ。単に投機筋が米ドル急騰に反応してゴールド先物から逃げ出しsummer doldrmsに入った。そして米国株式が再び高値に向かいeuphoriaがまた蔓延しゴールド心理を悪化させた。


investors have joined speculators in being heavy gold sellers
since late April.  Between then and this week, GLD’s holdings have
fallen 8.9% or 77.2t on relentless differential selling of GLD
shares!  That is on the high side for market summers.  If either
that US dollar
short squeeze
or the stock euphoria hadn’t happened, American
stock investors wouldn’t have started liquidating gold.  But they
did, so here we are.



gold investment selling so far in July has been particularly heavy
in GLD terms.  GLD’s holdings were down 25.0t month-to-date as of
this Wednesday, a short couple-week span.  That is challenging the
27.1t GLD draw in all of Q2’18!  So waning gold investment demand
driven by increasingly-bearish sentiment on gold is a major
secondary driver of gold’s worse-than-normal summer swoon.  But
that’s not sustainable.



like speculators’ collective gold-futures positioning, there are
only so many weak-handed investors in gold so easily spooked into
exiting.  Note above that GLD’s holdings have fallen near 800t three
other times in this gold bull, it’s proven strong support.  Once all
the gold investors susceptible to being scared into selling low are
out, that leaves only buyers.  GLD 800t has been this gold bull’s
selling-exhaustion level.



in April 2016 just after this gold bull was born following the first
stock-market corrections in years, GLD’s holdings slumped to
802.7t.  That wasn’t much above this week’s 794.0t.  Gold investment
buying soon resumed with the excitable shaken out, so gold blasted
10.3% higher by early July on heavy investment buying.  GLD’s
holdings nearing 800 tonnes proved the limit of investment selling,
turning things around.



Investors started fleeing gold again in late 2016 following Trump’s
surprise election win, which ignited a
blistering stock
.  Heavy differential selling of GLD shares battered its
holdings all the way back down to 799.1t in late January 2017.  But
with investor selling exhausted, buyers returned which helped push
gold 7.4% higher by mid-April.  Again GLD’s holdings and thus gold
bounced sharply higher after 800t was hit.



last summer everyone was freaking out about the gold weakness just
like in recent weeks.  That led investors to dump GLD shares
ferociously enough to batter its holdings to 786.9t in early August
2017.  But once their selling was out of the way, all they could do
was buy back in.  So gold surged 7.2% from then to early September. 
Once marginal investors capitulate in GLD, buyers return to
drive gold sharply higher.

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the rampant gold bearishness this week seems pretty histrionic and
silly.  Investors and speculators alike are largely assuming this
summer-doldrums gold selling will persist.  They are succumbing to
their own worries and extrapolating the present out into infinity. 
But gold selling can’t continue unless there is more gold to sell. 
And the likely near-term selling largely looks tapped out
from both speculators and investors.

とういうわけで、今週のゴールド弱気の広まりはわざとらしく馬鹿げている。投資家投機筋ともに多くはこのsummer doldrumsのゴールド売却がずっと続くと思っている。彼らは自らの懸念に負けてしまい現状がずっと続くと外挿している。しかしゴールド売りは続くわけがない。そして投資家投機筋ともに短期的な売りは売りつくしになっているように見える。


Speculators’ gold-futures longs were getting really low before this
past week, and must be considerably lower now.  And their shorts
were already very high, so they must’ve ramped to extremes to break
gold below its summer-doldrums -5% support line.  I can’t wait to
see this week’s data late Friday afternoon, it will be telling! 
Just like last summer, once total spec positions hit
gold will rally hard.

先週までをみると投機筋のロングは少ない、そして今もかなり少ないに違いない。そして彼らのショートはとても多く、彼らはゴールドをsummer doldrums の−5%サポート以下まで極端に叩いた。私は金曜遅くのデータ開示を待ちきれないが、それを見れば解るだろう!昨年夏と同様に、一旦投機筋のポジションが持続不可能なほどに極端になるとゴールドは激しくラリーを引き起こすだろう。


investors have largely exited too, as shown by GLD’s holdings
getting driven back under that rare 800t bull-market support line
again.  The great majority of the capital likely to be scared into
selling low is already out of gold.  This presents a serious
quandary for the legions of gold bears.  Gold can only head
materially lower if major new selling emerges.  Where can that
come from
with traders already tapped out?



History has proven countless times that succumbing to popular gold
bearishness near summer-doldrums lows is groupthink foolishness. 
The herd is always wrong at major turning points, failing to see
that the previous trends’ drivers are reaching their probable
limits.  Thus these very summer-doldrums lows are what birth gold’s
major autumn
.  The worse gold’s sentiment in market summers, the
bigger these rebounds.

歴史が教えるところは数限りなく、summer doldrums安値近くの一般的なゴールドベア心理による自滅は集団心理による馬鹿げた出来事だ。大きな転換点では群衆はいつも間違う、これまでのトレンドを形成してきた要因は限界に達していることが見えないのだ。しかるに現在のsummer doldrums安値はゴールドの大きな秋ラリーの始まりだ。市場の夏におけるゴールド心理が悪いほどに、その反動は大きくなる。


sentiment was really bearish last July, even though gold’s 4.4%
summer-to-date loss at worst was milder than this July’s 5.4% as of
this Wednesday.  Yet gold still powered 11.2% higher over the next
2.0 months.  An even-bigger autumn rally is likely this year out of
deeper summer-doldrums lows, especially if the lofty
bubble-valued US
stock markets
start rolling over and the red-hot US dollar fades
as expected.

昨年7付きもゴールド心理は本当に弱気なものだった、最悪で夏の下落は4.4T%だったが、今年の7月の5.4%下落に比べればまだマシなものだった。それでもゴールドはその後2.0か月で11.2%上昇した。今年はかつてないほどの秋ラリーが期待できる、summer doldrusm安値が厳しかったからだ、特にもしバブル域にある米国株式市場が転落を始め熱々の米ドルが予想どうりに収まり始めると。


Far from being
something to fret about, the summer doldrums are a gift for prudent
contrarian investors and speculators.  They offer the best seasonal
buying opportunities of the year in gold, silver, and their miners’
stocks.  Late last summer as gold powered 11.2% higher, the
benchmark HUI gold-stock index leveraged that to a strong 22.7% gain
in that exact span.  Today’s
dirt-cheap gold
have far-greater potential.

逃げ出すなんてとんでもないもので、summer doldrumsは規律有るコントラリアン投資家投機筋にとっては贈り物だ。この時期は年間を通じてゴールド、シルバーそして鉱山株の絶好の買い機会だ。昨夏遅くにはゴールドは11.2%上昇した、金鉱株指数HUIは同じ期間に22.7%も上昇した。現在金鉱株はバーゲンセール状態でとても大きなポテンシャルを持っている。


They are deeply
out of favor, either despised or totally ignored.  And they are
wildly undervalued
, trading at levels implying gold prices were
radically lower than prevailing levels.  The gold miners are
earning fat
even at $1225 gold, and those will really amplify gold’s
gains as it rebounds out of these summer-doldrums lows.  Now is the
time to get deployed into great individual gold stocks before they
rebound sharply.

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いまはとても嫌われている、馬鹿にされるか無視されるかだ。そして金鉱株は極端に過小評価状態で、まるでゴールド価格が今よりもとても低いかのようなレベルだ。金鉱株はたとえゴールドが$1225でも厚い利益を上げている、そしてこのsummer  doldrumsの安値からゴールドが上昇するとその上昇を増幅するだろう。今が個別金鉱株銘柄に投資する絶好の機会だ、急反騰するまえにだ。


At Zeal we’ve
literally spent tens of thousands of hours researching
individual gold stocks and markets, so we can better decide what to
trade and when.  As of the end of Q2, this has resulted in 1012
stock trades recommended in real-time to our newsletter subscribers
since 2001.  Fighting the crowd to buy low and sell high is very
profitable, as all these trades averaged stellar annualized realized
gains of +19.3%!

Zeal は文字通り何万時間も個別金鉱株と市場の調査に費やしてきた、そのため私どもはどの銘柄をいつとりあつかの良い判断ができる。2001年からQ2終了時点で1012の推奨を行ってきた。群衆に反し安値で買い後ほど高く売ることでとても利益をだしてきた、これらすべてのトレードの平均で年率+19.3%の利益を上げてきた!


The key to this
success is staying informed and being contrarian.  That means buying
low before others figure it out, before undervalued gold stocks soar
much higher.  An easy way to keep abreast is through our acclaimed
weekly and
newsletters.  They draw on my vast experience, knowledge, wisdom,
and ongoing research to explain what’s going on in the markets, why,
and how to trade them with specific stocks. 
Subscribe today
and take advantage of our 20%-off summer-doldrums sale and
see all our new trades!

この成功の鍵は情報を常に得てコントラリアンとなることだ。その意味は、他人が買えない安値で買うことだ、過小評価された金鉱株が高騰する前にだ。遅れを取らない簡単な方法は私どもの週報、月報を購読することだ。そこには私の比類なき経験、知識、知恵、そして今市場で何が起きているかを解説する調査、そして個別銘柄をいつどのように取扱という情報だ。今日購読するとsummer doldrums 20%割引になる!


bottom line is this summer’s waning gold investment won’t last
indefinitely as traders largely assume.  Just like speculators’
gold-futures selling, there are limits to gold investment selling. 
The best proxy for gold investment demand, GLD’s holdings, has
already fallen to levels that have proven strong buying support
throughout this entire gold bull.  Below 800 metric tons selling
fizzles, with only strong hands remaining.



both likely speculation and investment selling looking mostly tapped
out for this summer, odds are gold’s major autumn rally will get
underway any day now.  And it ought to be bigger than usual this
year with gold sentiment and positioning so darned bearish this
summer.  Buying low now to win the biggest gains later requires
fighting this bearish herd sentiment.  Gold’s summer-doldrums lows
are very bullish historically.

投機筋、投資家も似たようなものでもうこの夏の売りはほとんど尽きている、もうすぐに大きな秋ラリーが始まるだろう。そして今年は秋ラリーがいつもより大きくなるだろう、ゴールド心理とポジションが今夏はこれだけ弱気になっているからだ。今の安値で買うことが大きな利益を生み出す、行動を起こすには弱気群集心理と戦う必要がある。歴史的に見てゴールドのsummer doldrums安値はとても強気なものだ。


Adam Hamilton,

July 20,

Source: ContrarianJ

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