米国家計資産はバブル状態 Part 2 前半

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U.S. Household Wealth Is In A Bubble – Part 2

Written by Jesse Colombo | Jul, 25, 2018

U.S. Stocks Are In A Bubble

In Part 1 of this series called “Why U.S. Household Wealth Is In A Bubble,” I explained why America’s post-Great Recession wealth boom is driven by a tremendous bubble that will end in tears.

このシリーズのPart I「どうして米国家計資産はバブル常態か」で私はGreat Recession後に数多くのバブルを引き起こしたがそれは悲しい結果に終わるだろうと解説した。

In Part 2 of this series, I will go into more detail
about the U.S. stock market bubble that is a major driver of the
overall household wealth bubble. Common stocks – including those held
indirectly in mutual funds – are one of the largest components
of U.S. household wealth, along with bonds and housing. When stocks are
extremely inflated, like they were during the late-1990s Dot-com
bubble, they contribute to the inflation of household wealth.
Conversely, when stocks experience a bear market, like they did when the
Dot-com bubble popped, household wealth falls as well. In this piece, I
will show a wide variety of charts and other data that prove beyond a
reasonable doubt that the U.S. stock market is excessively inflated and heading for serious pain.

このシリーズのPart 2では、私は米国株式市場バブルの詳細について議論しよう、米国家計資産バブルの主要因だからだ。一般株式ーー多くは投資信託が持っているがーーこれが米国家計資産の最大要素の一つだ、さらには債権と住宅となる。株式が極端に膨れ上がったとき、たとえば1990年代遅くのドットコムバブル時、これが家計資産を膨れ上がらせた。逆に、株式市場がベア相場となると、例えばドットコムバブルが弾けたとき、家計資産も下落した。こういうことを勘案し、私は数多くのチャートとデータで、疑うこと無く、米国株式市場は過剰に膨れ上がっており今後深刻な痛みを伴うことを示そう。

Since the Great Recession bear market bottom in March 2009, the
bellwether S&P 500 stock index is up a jaw-dropping 300 percent. In
addition, the index is approximately 80 percent higher than its 2007

Great Recession ベア相場の底、2009年3月以来、先導指標となるS&P500株式指数はなんと300パーセントも上昇した。さらにいうとこの指数は2007年のピークよりも80%も高い。


The more volatile Russell 2000 small cap index and the tech-centric
Nasdaq Composite Index are up even more than the S&P 500 –
approximately 400 percent and 500 percent respectively:

もっと変動の大きなRussell 2000小型株指数やテック専門Nasdaq Composite IndesはS&P500以上に上昇しているーー約400%と約500%だ;

Percent Increase For U.S. Stock Indices

As discussed in Part 1 of this series, record
low interest rates are the primary reason for both the overall U.S.
household wealth bubble as well as the U.S. stock market bubble.

The chart below shows how U.S. interest rates (the Fed Funds Rate,
10-Year Treasury yields, and Aaa corporate bond yields) have been at
record low levels for a record period of time since the 2008 financial
crisis. The fact that credit has been so cheap for so long explains why
the household wealth bubble is so extreme and why the stock market
bubble is so inflated, as valuation indicators later on in this piece
will show.

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Part 1で議論したように、記録的な低金利が米国株式市場と同様に米国家計資産バブルの主要因だ。下のチャートは米国金利(FFR,米国債10年もの、そして企業最近Aaaの金利)は2008年の金融危機以降記録的な低レベルになっている。これだけ長期に渡り借金がやすくなりこれが家計資産のバブルをここまで極端にし、株式市場バブルがここまで膨れ上がった、これは後ほど示すバリエーション指数でも示される。

U.S. Interest Rates

Low interest rates contribute to the inflation of asset and credit bubbles in numerous ways:


  • Investors can borrow cheaply to speculate in assets (ex: cheap
    mortgages for property speculation and low margin costs for trading


  • By discouraging the holding of cash in the bank versus speculating in riskier asset markets


  • By encouraging higher rates of inflation, which helps to support assets like stocks and real estate


  • By encouraging more borrowing by consumers, businesses, and governments


The chart of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates below confirms
just how loose U.S. monetary policy has been since the Great Recession. In recent decades, the only time the U.S. has experienced negative real interest rates
for a significant amount of time was during the mid-2000s housing
bubble and during the current “Everything Bubble” period that started
after 2009.
(Note: “Everything Bubble” is a term that I’ve
coined to describe a dangerous bubble that has been inflating across the
globe in a wide variety of countries, industries, and assets – please visit my website to learn more.)

インフレ調整後の実質金利を見れば、Great Recession後、如何に米国金融政策は緩和的であったかがわかる。この何十年かをみると、米国がマイナス金利になったのは2000年台半ばの住宅バブルと2009年に始まった現在の「Everything Bubble」期だけだ。(メモ:「Everything Bubble」は私の造語で現在の危険なバブルを表現している、世界中の多くの国、産業で資産の膨張を引込しているーーもっと詳しくは私のwebsiteを見てほしい。)

Real Fed Funds RateAnother way of determining how excessively loose (or tight) U.S. monetary conditions are is by comparing the Fed Funds Rate to the Taylor Rule model. The Taylor Rule is a proposed guideline created by economist John Taylor to estimate the ideal level
for central bank-controlled benchmark interest rates – such as the Fed
Funds Rate – for the purpose of maximizing the stability of economic
growth. When the Fed Funds Rate is much lower than the Taylor Rule
model, it means that interest rates are likely too low relative to
economic growth and inflation, which greatly increases the probability
of forming a dangerous economic bubble. The chart below shows that the
Fed Funds Rate was much lower than the Taylor Rule model during the
formation of both the mid-2000s housing bubble as well as the current
“Everything Bubble.”

米国金融環境が如何に緩和的であったかを確認するもう一つの方法は、FFRとTaylor Ruleモデルを比べることだ。Taylor Ruleは経済学者John TAylorが提唱したもので、中央銀行の理想的なベンチマーク金利を推定するものだーーたとえばFFRーー経済成長の安定性を最大にすることを目的にしている。FFRがTaylor Ruleモデルよりも低ければ、それは経済成長やインフレに比べて金利が低すぎることを意味する、こうなると危険な経済バブルをとても引き起こしやすくなる。下のチャートを見れば分かるが2000年代の住宅バブル時期と現在の「Everything Bubble」期ではFFRがTaylor Rule modelよりも極端に低かった。

Taylor Rule vs. Fed Funds Rate 1

The chart below plots the difference between the Fed Funds Rate and
the Taylor Rule model to show when U.S. monetary policy is likely too
tight (when the chart is in positive territory) or too loose (when the
chart is in negative territory). Both the U.S. housing bubble and the
current “Everything Bubble” formed when the difference between the Fed
Funds Rate and the Taylor Rule model was negative (the Fed Funds Rate
was lower than the Taylor Rule model).

下のチャートはFFRとTaylor Ruleモデルの差を示す、これをみると米国金融政策が引き締めすぎか、緩和し過ぎかがわかる。米国住宅バブルもまた現在の「Everything Bubble」もFFRとTaylor Ruleモデルがマイナスのときに生み出されている。

Fed Funds Rate vs. Taylor Rule 2

Ultra-low interest rates have encouraged corporations to borrow very
heavily (via the bond market) since the Global Financial Crisis. Total
outstanding non-financial U.S. corporate debt is up by over $2.5 trillion or 40 percent since its 2008 peak,
causing the U.S. corporate debt-to-GDP ratio to hit an all-time high of
over 45 percent, which is even more extreme than the level reached
during the Dot-com bubble and U.S. housing and credit bubble. Click here to read my U.S. corporate debt warning report.

Global Finacial Crisis以来超低金利のために企業は債券市場で巨額の債務を発行した。非金融米国企業債務総額は2008年のピークを40%相当の$2.5T増えている、その結果米国企業の対GDP債務比率は過去最高の45パーセントになった、

Corporate Debt GDP Ratio

American public corporations have been using their borrowings to
boost their stock prices through share buybacks, dividend increases, and
mergers & acquisitions. Though these activities make shareholders
happy and help increase executive compensation in the shorter-term, they
are contrary to the long-term success of these companies. In the past,
corporations prioritized long-term business investments and expansions,
but pumping stock prices is the name of the game now. The chart below
shows the surge in share buybacks and dividends paid. Share buybacks are
expected to exceed $1 trillion this year,
which would trounce all prior records. The passing of President Donald
Trump’s tax reform plan encouraged corporations to further escalate
their share buyback plans this year.


Share Buybacks

As discussed in Part 1
of this series, each of the Federal Reserve’s QE programs led to an
increase in the Fed’s balance sheet and a corresponding surge in asset
prices. The chart below shows how tightly correlated the S&P 500 was
to the Fed’s balance sheet from 2009 until 2016. Despite the
flat-lining of the Fed’s balance sheet in 2014, the S&P 500
continued to rise again in late-2016 due to optimism over President
Trump’s election win and his plans for increased infrastructure
spending, tax reform, and greater corporate stock buybacks (a byproduct
of the tax reform plan).

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Part 1で議論したが、FFRのQEプログラムでFEDバランスシートが膨らみそれに伴い株価は上昇してきた。下のチャートに示すが、S&P500とFEDバランスシートの間には2009年から2016年までとても密接な関係が見られる。2014年からFEDバランスシートは変わらずだが、S&P500は再び2016年遅くから上昇し始めた、トランプ勝利の楽観と彼が計画するインフラ支出、減税、そしてそして企業の巨額自社株買いによるものだ(これは税制改革の副産物でもある)。

Fed Balance Sheet vs. SP500

During bull markets and bubbles, it becomes more popular for traders
to borrow money from their brokers in the form of margin loans for the
purpose of speculating on rising stock prices. When margin debt levels
reach extremes, it is often indicative of overly optimistic market
sentiment, which foreshadows a market correction or bear market ahead.
During the Dot-com bubble and housing bubble era, margin debt peaked at
approximately 2.75 percent of GDP. In the current stock market bubble, margin debt is nearly at 3 percent of GDP, which is a worrisome sign.
Another risk of having such large amounts of margin debt in an
over-extended bull market is that it exacerbates the eventual downturn
by causing powerful liquidation sell-offs as bullish traders are forced
to jettison assets to satisfy margin calls.


SP500 vs. Margin As A % of GDP

Another example of overly optimistic market sentiment is the chart below, which shows that retail
investors have the highest allocation to stocks (blue line) and the
lowest cash holdings (orange line) since the Dot-com bubble.

From a contrarian perspective, this is worrisome because small investors
tend to be wrong at major market turnings points (example: being too
bearish in early-2009 at the very start of the bull market).


Retail Investor Allocation


Source: ContrarianJ

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