ゴールドショートは記録的量に! by Zeal 前半

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Gold Shorts Near Record!

Adam Hamilton    
July 27,
2018     3087 Words


continues to drift near summer-doldrums lows, feeding and
intensifying bearish sentiment.  But an exceedingly-bullish event
just happened which will ignite a major new upleg.  Speculators’
gold-futures short positions have soared near all-time record
highs!  That means the recent heavy gold selling is exhausted, and
massive proportional short-covering buying is imminent.  That will
catapult gold much higher.

ゴールドは引き続きsummer doldrums安値を低迷している、これがさらに弱気心理を強めている。しかし新たな大きな上昇を引き起こすとても強気な出来事が生じた。投機筋のゴールド先物ショート・ポジションが過去最高近くまで急上昇したのだ!ということは最近の大きなゴールド売りももう売りつくされているということだ、そしてこの量に相当する巨額のショートカバーが迫っている。これがゴールドをもっと高値に跳ね上げるだろう。


Short-term gold price action is dominated by speculators’
gold-futures trading.  This is counterintuitive as this group of
traders and the capital they control are small compared to investors
and their vast funds.  But the futures guys still wield
wildly-disproportional outsized influence over gold.  It’s
impossible to game short-term gold action if you’re not watching and
analyzing speculators’ collective gold-futures trading activity.



main reason this is true is the extreme leverage inherent in gold
futures.  Investors buy gold outright, using their own money without
any margin.  And if they choose to buy gold in the form of
exchange-traded funds like the leading GLD SPDR Gold Shares gold
ETF, stock-market leverage has been legally limited to a maximum of
2x since 1974.  Futures speculation is an entirely different world
shattering these norms.



Every gold-futures contract controls 100 troy ounces of gold, worth
$122,500 at $1225 gold.  But margin requirements, the cash
speculators are required to keep in their accounts to trade, are
vanishingly small.  This week COMEX only required cash margins of
$3100 per gold-futures contract.  That is about 1/40th the value of
the gold controlled, equating to extreme leverage around 40x
This greatly distorts gold prices.



40x leverage, every dollar speculators deploy in trading gold
futures has 40x the price impact on gold as a dollar
investors use to buy outright!  This enables gold-futures
speculators to punch far above their weights in bullying the gold
price around.  And 40x generates mind-boggling risks, as a mere 2.5%
gold move against speculators’ positions will obliterate 100% of
their capital risked.  So they have to trade very differently.



While investors buy gold gradually over months and years, that
extreme leverage inherent in gold futures forces speculators’ focus
to hours and days.  When a 1% move in gold drives 40% gains
or losses, all that matters is the ultra-short-term.  By necessity
gold-futures speculators’ outlooks are incredibly myopic and their
trading is very lumpy.  They all have to act at once when gold moves
materially against their positions.



herd effect amplified by extreme leverage running up to 40x can
really move the gold price.  Those resulting big and fast moves
heavily color investors’ sentiment, so they tend to pile on
to whatever the futures guys are up to.  When speculators are heavy
sellers pounding gold lower, investors start worrying and selling in
unison.  That can really exacerbate and intensify whatever gold’s
short-term trend happens to be.



this summer that is certainly lower.  This first chart is another
update from my latest research on gold’s
trading range
published in early June.  Gold tends to drift
sideways to lower in market summers in bull-market years, this is
its weakest time of the year seasonally.  But this year’s
gold action is worse than usual, slightly below support in recent
weeks.  Extreme gold-futures shorting is to blame.

そして今年の夏は安くなった。この最初のチャートは7月初めに示したsummer-doldrums trading rangeに関する研究の改訂版だ。ブル相場年の夏にはゴールドは横ばいか下落の傾向がある、季節的にこの時期は弱くなる。しかし今年のゴールドの動きはいつもよりも悪い、ここ何週かサポートを少し下回っている。その原因は極端なゴールド先物ショートだ。


spilled-spaghetti mess of a chart is simple conceptually.  Gold’s
summer action in every modern bull-market year is individually
indexed to its final pre-summer close at the end of May, which is
set at 100.  Then all price action is recast off that common base,
making summers perfectly comparable regardless of prevailing gold
prices.  An indexed level of 95 for example simply means gold is
down 5% summer-to-date.



Gold’s modern bull-market years ran from 2001 to 2012, skipped the
intervening bear years of 2013 to 2015, and resumed in the next bull
from 2016 to 2018.  All this was explained in depth in my recent
summer-doldrums essay.  The yellow lines below show individual
years’ indexed summer gold action from 2001 to 2012 and 2016.  I
rendered 2017’s in light blue this week, because it is relevant and
predictive for this year.

ゴールドの近代のブル相場年とは、2001から2012、そしてベア相場の2013から2015をとばして、2016から2018にぶる相場が復活した。この状況は私の最近のsummer doldrums記事で深く解説している。黄色の線は2001から2012と2016の価格動向を示す。2017だけを淡い青にした、というのも今年のこれからの価格動向の参考になるからだ。


those individual years’ indexed gold prices are then averaged
together in the red line, which distills out gold’s seasonal
tendencies during market summers.  On average gold has slumped 0.2%
in Junes, rebounded 0.9% in Julies, and then surged 2.2% in Augusts
as its major autumn rallies get underway.  Finally the dark-blue
line shows gold’s indexed trading action this year, which has been
weak even for market summers.




As I
warned in early June when gold was still trading near $1300, gold
tends to drift sideways to lower this time of year.  Market summers
are simply devoid of the big recurring surges in outsized gold
investment demand seen during much of the rest of the year.  With no
major income-cycle or cultural drivers of gold buying, gold
languishes especially in the first halves of summers.  It
tends to meander within 5% of May’s close.



normal +/-5% summer trading range held strong this year until
mid-July, when gold slumped below its -5% support line.  The driver
was heavy gold-futures selling erupting on the release of Jerome
Powell’s prepared remarks for his semiannual Congressional testimony
on July 17th.  The Fed chairman stayed consistently hawkish in his
outlook for continuing rate hikes.  Gold futures speculators
irrationally fear
rate hikes.

今年も7月半ばまではいつもの夏の変動範囲の+/ー5%に納まっていた、ゴールドが−5%のサポートラインを下回るまでだった。7月17日のJerome Powleeの議会公聴会をキッカケとしてゴールド先物の大きな売りが始まった。FED議長はこれまでと変わらず継続して金利引き上げをするタカ派姿勢を示した。ゴールド先物投機筋はこの金利引き上げを非合理にも恐れたのだ。


gold certainly didn’t crater, at worst over the past couple weeks or
so it was down 5.8% summer-to-date.  That’s on the lower side, but
still not significantly below trend.  Not surprisingly this
weaker-than-usual price action still really tainted sentiment. 
Speculators and investors alike are really down on gold, totally
convinced it is doomed to spiral lower.  But they are wrong like
usual at extremes, a major rally is imminent.



Gold’s summer selloff this year was driven by one thing, extreme
gold-futures short selling
by speculators.  They were shorting
at near-record levels, catapulting their total short contracts to
near-record extremes.  Unfortunately the resulting gold-price
weakness spooked investors, who have
sold heavily in
as I analyzed in last week’s essay.  But there’s
nothing more bullish for gold than extreme gold-futures shorts!



Source: ContrarianJ

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